Hopes, dreams and speculations for 2024: Shaminder’s wild ideas about the year ahead

What will we see in 2024?

The possibilities of a new year can inspire us to (re)ignite passions, set new goals or send the mind raveling in wild flights of fancy. In the grand scheme, the heavens do not notice that a rock has hurtled through the cosmos to retrace its steps once more, but on that rock, we humans take notice every January.

It’s customary to celebrate in one of three ways. It used to be four, but we no longer have checkbooks (as late as the mid-00s, it was still common in North America to write paper checks to pay for groceries or the electric bill, and we often wrote the wrong date for weeks at the start of a new year).

You can take the tried and true action of making a New Year’s resolution or the equally tried and true action of loudly rejecting resolutions.

You can choose to sign up for a gym membership that you’ll use a handful of times and then try to cancel for six months.

Or, you can play the prediction game. That’s the route I’m choosing today. We can’t see into the future, but why not try anyway? Here are my predictions (best guesses) for 2024.

A brief diversion before we get started. These predictions are meant as a little fun with tongue firmly in cheek. Some serious, some not-so-serious, some wishes and dreams, but on some level, I’m aiming to be plausible and based on some truth. In other words, if I’m right, it’s “I told you so,” and if I’m wrong, “just kidding.” Enjoy!

Global Shutter will be the buzzword of the year

I think this one is a no-brainer. There won’t be any escaping ‘global shutter’ in 2024. With Sony’s anticipated February release of the a9 III, there’s a lot of hoopla about global shutter finally coming to a still photography camera.

We’ve already seen a wave of think pieces on how revolutionary this camera will be. YouTube is saturated with thumbnails, declaring it a ‘game changer.’

I was recently surprised to hear from dozens of photojournalists wondering if they should preorder the a9 III ASAP. Surprising, because these same photojournalists have yet to make the switch to mirrorless systems, and yet here they are asking if this is THE camera that would convince them to leave DSLR behind finally.

Global shutter is nifty for doing away with rolling shutter and making flash sync a near afterthought, but it is not without its compromises. In our testing, we found that a9 III image quality takes a hit, particularly at higher ISO settings. It still makes sense for sports shooters, but its use of global shutter isn’t the ‘game changer’ and future for every type of photography. (Not just yet anyway, maybe version 2 down the road?)

Still, that won’t stop flame wars and talking points about global shutter this year.

More video features in cameras

Contrary to popular belief, camera video features don’t necessarily make a still photography camera more expensive. Rather, video feature improvements overlap with ways to improve still camera features. The performance gains and R&D costs are shared across stills and video, and one way or another, we’re paying for them.

What do I mean? Let’s look at sensor readout speeds and processors. Faster sensors and processors help video reduce rolling shutter, but they also improve autofocus and enable features such as subject recognition for stills. There are benefits for still photography as well as video, and the development costs don’t necessarily increase costs for still photographers since they’re already baked into the sensor development.

In other words, the costs are shared and any advancement in sensor speed for stills benefits video, and vice versa. More to the point, the costs are incurred even if you’re only trying to do it just for stills. They’re intrinsically linked, and taking one away doesn’t make the other cheaper. So, let’s embrace video and reap the benefits when it comes to photography features.

32-bit float audio will be hinted at in at least one camera

Audio has long been a neglected side of the video equation in cameras. Video editing dogma has foretold that viewers will forgive bad pictures but not bad sounds. For instance, who doesn’t know someone who refused to watch Tenet due to sound issues?

From my experience, our cameras haven’t always kept this in mind when thinking about how to implement audio. Monitoring sound quality isn’t possible on most entry and mid-tier cameras, and it’s often not until you get into more expensive cameras that you are graced with a headphone socket.

Without a way to monitor directly, we risk improperly setting gain levels to where we miss sounds that are too low or risk clipping sounds that are too high. Some cameras (mostly those targeted at vlogging) have recognized this and implemented clever auto mic modes, and while the results are better, they too run the risk of clipping, and the overall sound quality pales compared to properly monitored audio captured off-camera.

I think this is where 32-bit float audio may help. Unlike 16-bit (what our CDs use) or 24-bit audio (what most professionals use), 32-bit float audio uses scientific notation to capture a much wider range of distinct levels of sound. To better understand what this means, let’s look at what each format is capable of: 16-bit files can capture a dynamic range of 96.3 decibels, 24-bit files top out at 144.5 decibels and 32-bit float goes up to 1,528 decibels.

This means 32-bit float files can capture a wider range of loud sounds before clipping, which means on a video shoot, bad sound can be one less thing to worry about. That’s particularly helpful for solo productions where you’re already consumed with lighting, framing, direction, camera operation and often racing against time. Who doesn’t want one less thing to worry about, and why not let that be a thing that’s crucial to the final result?

A quick caveat: 32-bit float audio is not a magic bullet. You still have to be in the ballpark on your initial capture settings, but that ballpark is now an astronomically larger field so it is easier not to mess it up.

I don’t think we’ll see it show up in a camera in 2024, but I have a feeling one manufacturer (I’m betting Blackmagic Design) will announce plans to implement 32-bit float in an upcoming camera.

AI will bring into question the very nature of photos

What is a photograph? Is a photograph a document, art or something else entirely? Do photographs have to be real, or is the word ‘photos’ just another way to refer to all visuals that can pass for photorealism? The word photo means ‘light,’ so do photons need to be involved somewhere?

These weren’t very hard questions a few years ago, but in 2024, we’ll be asking ourselves some version of these questions constantly.

In the wake of AI, and before that, computational photography, our understanding of what defines a ‘photo’ has become a mishmash of qualifiers and footnotes.

We may say that, in essence, a photo is a natural light captured and preserved as a visual representation of a moment in time. But then, what of the photos coming from our smartphones? Our phones do not capture a single moment the same way our still cameras do, but rather as a burst of images that is computationally combined into an amalgamation of no actual moment in time. Is this still a photograph? Does it matter that a smartphone has taken 16 images and combined elements of each to make one image? Does a photo always have to be truthful?

We can now easily apply an artificial shallow depth of field, denoise, shift selective color, apply skin filters, remove or insert objects and people, and run automated AI adjustments. Are these still ‘photos’ in the classic definition, a definition referenced by social media (“pictures of it didn’t happen”) and through history as proof that something happened?

And then there is AI image-making. Prompt these tools with some text, and they computationally produce an image. Sure, it puts extra fingers on people’s hands or does odd things with backgrounds, but it’s improving fast, and with a little QA, you can produce work good enough to trick global contests into awarding you a prize.

The journalism and documentary world has been grappling with these issues for years, World Press Photo at one point tried to define a ‘photo’ as something created by ‘lens-based still photography,’ a topic they revisited in 2023 to clarify that generative AI tools are also not eligible under their definition of photography.

In 2024, we’ll be wrestling with these questions, and we’ll come up with many definitions for what makes a ‘photo’ a photo.

Fake images and deep fake video will be everywhere

Hand in hand with the AI question, there will be the ‘truth’ question. 2024 is an election year in the US, meaning we’ll see a ton of misinformation globally, with visuals offered as the ‘proof’ of their validity.

We’ve already seen early signs of official political campaigns using AI imagery and trying to portray them as real. There are also individuals seeding AI-generated audio and video clips on social media in an attempt to cast public figures in a false light.

In years past, we have seen outlandishly fake images of JFK Jr. meeting with Barack Obama or seen people get creative with fun clips of actors recast in older films, but in 2024, we’ll see faked images weaponized like never before. Having a strong sense of media literacy and a conviction that faked images are harmful will be our main defense, if we care.

To give us the tools to verify and practice media literacy, expect to see more cameras implement C2PA and CAI authentication standards in 2024 (C2PA is the technical side focused on setting standards, and CAI is the educational side focused on identifying features to develop, open-source tools and fostering community about content authenticity.)

These are two parts of an industry-wide adoption of cryptographic metadata, which will produce a secure record of an image file’s provenance and edit history. Tools to track the source and edits of images will be used chiefly by media organizations and archivists, but the tools will be freely available to the public for anyone to verify images independently. I’m personally excited to see this coming to market in 2024, as it’s one more way to empower people to sort fact from fiction in a world filled with misinformation.

Canon might ruffle some feathers

If you’re releasing a camera targeted at sports and documentary journalists, there’s no better time than the summer Olympics. Not only do you have a global event to rally around, but you’re also hitting publishers during a year when newsrooms have allocated budgets toward acquiring new equipment they may need to cover the games.

The lead-up to the summer games will spread rumors that Canon will finally announce the long-speculated EOS R1. I’m personally not so sure, I have a feeling we may see Canon announce the R3 Mark II ahead of the Olympics instead. This will cause the DPReview forums to ignite, with one faction demanding an R1, another embracing the R3 Mark 2, and the rest declaring that <insert your brand> is far superior and only <insert your favorite insult here> like Canon.

Canon should release a ‘retro’ camera

I think this is the year. Canon, having seen the writing on the walls, could finally give consumers what they’ve long been demanding – a retro-inspired camera. I don’t have any insider knowledge or definitive reason to think this, but it seems that after the success Fujifilm and Nikon have had with retro-inspired cameras, it’s time for Canon to get their own slice of the pie. And unlike Sony, the other major player to hold out on joining the trend, Canon actually has vintage gear to revisit for inspiration.

To me, the best candidate for a modern take is the Canon AE-1 35mm film camera. The AE-1 still fetches a respectable sum on eBay, and it’s pretty handsome to look at. This is a key design principle for a retro cam, as it has to be as much fun to use as it is to be seen using. Its classic lines, the tight layout of buttons, and the all-important silver trim check all the boxes for a ‘retro’ camera.

To be fair, Canon, which sold nearly 50% of all cameras in 2023 industry-wide, doesn’t really need a niche product like this when they’re already dominating the mainstream. But there’s something to be said for marque halo products that create emotional ties to a brand, while also showing off that they’re one of the enduring heritage brands of photography. It doesn’t matter if everyone will buy one, it matters that they’re talking about you and may opt for a lower-priced entry camera even if they can’t afford the shiny status symbol product.

Pentax film camera gets a little closer

Speaking of film cameras, in 2024, I think we’ll see Ricoh release another update on its Pentax film camera project. It will indeed be cool. Some will guffaw at the over-emphasis on the film advance lever (while secretly wanting to try it). And we’ll wonder why Ricoh still hasn’t announced a release date. Ultimately, I think we’ll find as the year ends that 2025 is the year it’ll finally arrive.

X is not gonna give it to ya

This isn’t core camera gear, but it is about how we consume photography and how we expose younger people to their definition of photography. Like it or not, social media plays an outsized role in the type of images we as a culture value and seek to create.

If you’ve been following the Twitter to X transition at home, you know that the company continues to fiddle with schemes to monetize its platform. I think in 2024, we’ll see an attempt from X to try and charge people to upload photos. The preceding 48 hours will see a quick outcry from the 17 people who pay for Twitter Blue Premium, causing X’s CEO to start a public poll and quickly reverse course. It’s not a sexy prediction, but like I said up top, it’s plausible, and that’s why it’s here.

I’m obviously being a little dramatic here. Twitter/X has not historically been a big player among photo platforms; it plays an outsized role among journalists and the sharing of photojournalism news images (this is the world I come from and definitely why it’s on my mind).

Outside of an initial wave (TwitPic before Hipstamatic and Instagram arrived on the scene), Twitter/X has never caught on with creators. Still, I think it’s worth paying attention to the platforms’ flailing attempts to generate income in 2024, as it might point to where other players in the social media space will eventually try to generate revenue from users.

Apple’s near-sighted vision

The onslaught has begun; we now know that Apple Vision Pro headsets will hit store shelves in Feburary. In the day leading up to release day, expect a campaign to frothily whip the public into a frenzy of techno-lust and desire for the virtual reality/mixed reality/3D camera/spatial computing device. On the eve of release day, everyone will be queued online from bed, with visions of digital sugar plums in their head. Come morning, filled with wonder, we will be encumbered under a weight to ‘think different,’ and ask the biggest question, “What do you do with this?”

When the Vision Pro arrives, no one will be sure what to do with it. Without a large user base, who is there to see the cool and innovative things people are making? There are some excellent experiential journalism and documentary projects and some innovative video games, but these have been around for years, serving the same limited user base established by other brands over the years.

I think in the end, Apple is going to face the same challenge HTC, Meta, Sony, Samsung, Google and others have faced – VR/MR is a solution looking for a problem and only makes sense as a niche entertainment product for people willing to pay a premium for it.

Naming lens will become a trend

Naming things that historically haven’t been named (tropical storms come to mind) has been a trend driven by the hashtag. Attaching a # to your moniker is one way to help others organize and find you on social media. Nikon seems to have recognized the benefits of a named lens when it followed up the Noct with the Plena in 2023. (Although for the record, I think we can give the Noct a pass as it was a nod to the original Noct released in 1977.)

There were a lot of very novel and interesting lenses in 2023, but the special name helped the Plena stand out from the crowd. Seeing this success, I expect other manufacturers to start assigning special monikers as well. It makes too much marketing and SEO sense not to, and it’s low-hanging fruit to get any advantage in the marketplace.

Even more vlogging cameras

I think this might be one of the most obvious ‘predictions’ I have for the year ahead. In 2024, expect more vlogging cameras, maybe even some updates to relatively recent models.

These cameras do well with entry-level and social media creators and can be a stepping stone from smartphones to mid-range cameras. They aren’t the most fancy cameras, but vlogging cameras do what they promise, and I think they will continue to sell enough to justify yet more vlogging cameras in 2025. (Although I would like to see them beef up their manual controls and not be so touchscreen-dependent for every adjustment.)

Generation Alpha is coming to drink your milkshake

The coming year will see a large shift in how media is created and consumed and who it is targeted for. Generation Alpha, the lazily named generation after Gen Z, is hitting their teens in 2024, and that means pop culture and marketing will shift toward what gets this group excited, sharing and buying. For photography, this will influence how our photos and videos will look for the next decade.

We’ll start to see Gen Alpha first take over social media from Gen Z and with it, usher in a wave of late-2000s inspired high key flash portraits, digicam noise, artificial film grain filters, poppy color, prism photography, and raw style of video editing reminiscent of the French New Wave. The photo composition du jour will be all about absurdism and odd juxtapositions. (Or maybe I’m wrong? What do you think?)

Many new trends are coming – things will look ‘cruddy’ or wow us with creativity, and personally I’m excited to see what happens.

What’s your take?

And there you have it. A fever dream of hopes, dreams and delirium. How many do you agree with? Where have I fallen off my rocker? What are your personal wild predictions for 2024? Let me know in the comments; I’d love to hear it!