The longer I wait into the awards season, the more I go back and forth on who I think will win what. I know a few weeks ago, I was pretty sure The Brutalist would win best picture. And I think I’m still there.
But when it comes to the best director, it’s a toss-up in my mind. There’s a real debate I want to get into today, so let’s dive in!
The Contenders
So, who’s up for the award? We have a wide array of filmmakers who have either burst onto the scene, crushed it in indies, or helmed studio movies—not to mention a robust international selection as well.
These people made some of my favorite movies of the year, and some of the most audacious and adventurous stories with worldbuilding I found to be astounding.
- Sean Baker (Anora): His film’s success, including the Palme d’Or, and DGA, positions him as a strong contender.
- Brady Corbet (The Brutalist): Corbet’s work on a large-scale epic has garnered attention and the movie has legs.
- Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez): Audiard’s unique musical approach has been widely noted but he would be a controversial winner.
- James Mangold (A Complete Unknown): Mangold’s work has also put him in the running and he has a great studio pedigree.
- Coralie Fargeat (The Substance): Fargeat’s work has also gained a lot of attention and the movie is part of the cultural lexicon now.
Our 2025 Academy Award Best Director Prediction
Look, all predictions are just for fun. I have no more insight than anyone else you’re reading. I’m not in the Academy. I don’t vote.
But given the way the DGA voted, I think my money is on Sean Baker to take home the statue. Anora is a feat of filmmaking that I found to be so engrossing and so funny, I think about it often.
Baker’s touch here is soft and lilting, it carries us in and out of scenes at the perfect time and coaches its actors to be emotional and vulnerable while also showing you a world we never really get to see.
His past work on movies like The Florida Project and Tangerine also provides a nice base for someone who has been doing this for a long time and garnered attention from the Academy. This could be his year.
While I would have picked Brady Corbet and The Brutalist, I just think the actual Academy voters will reward a seasoned director over someone they view as new.
But that’s just my two cents.
If you disagree, I want to hear why!
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Author: Jason Hellerman
This article comes from No Film School and can be read on the original site.
